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Quantum Superiority: how far it is?

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Some technologies, it’s said, are “always 10 years away” – we hear this regarding autonomous vehicles and quantum computing. Of course, how distant we expect they feature a lot to try to to with how they’re defined. Semi-autonomous cars are here today and becoming smarter with each new model year. As for quantum computing, Lux Research, Boston, are often added to those that say that while quantum is progressing toward eventual practical realization, achieving “quantum superiority” over classical supercomputing within subsequent 10 years is a smaller amount certain (though Google claimed to possess broken the prevalence barrier last year).

Quantum Superiority
image credit lux research

In its recent report, Preparing for Quantum Computing, Lux analyzed the quantum landscape and planned out likely paths the technology will take because it evolves. consistent with Lux:

As innovation continues to accelerate, quantum computing has become an increasingly important technology to watch as a part of the broader wave of digital transformation. Quantum computing aims to unravel complex problems that are impossible to deal with today’s supercomputers and has strong potential across multiple industry sectors, including pharma, energy, finance, logistics, manufacturing, and materials. However, there are significant obstacles in developing the technology that is currently limiting, and these obstacles will still challenge developers over the approaching years. Over the subsequent 10 years, it’s uncertain if quantum computing will consistently outperform today’s supercomputers for useful business-related problems, if at all. within the new report “Preparing for Quantum Computing,” Lux Research addresses what businesses got to realize quantum computing, including why it’s better when it’ll become available, and the way a corporation should engage with it.

“Today’s supercomputers tackle difficult problems including weather modeling, genomic analysis, and computational fluid dynamics, but even the simplest supercomputers will always be limited in specific areas. They’re still unable to handle some important problems in areas like chemical product design, folding, or supply chain optimization,” says Lux Research lead report author Lewie Roberts. “It’s our belief that quantum computing will at some point enable multiple industries to deal with a number of these key problems, moving past today’s barriers and enabling further innovation.” Today, the most problems being targeted by quantum computing are the simulation of quantum systems, machine learning, and optimization.

Currently, quantum computing faces many barriers that limit its near-term development. There are major challenges in hardware development, which severely limit further software development. Quantum bits, or qubits, are inherently unstable, thus reducing the accuracy of any computation that relies on them; this is often the primary major obstacle to commercialization. For this reason, problems that lack clearly defined answers (like machine learning) but still enjoy improved solutions are the simplest problems to focus on with quantum computing. Hardware developers hope to extend the steadiness of qubits but will ultimately need to build fault-tolerant quantum computers which will correct any errors that result from this instability. Lux Research doesn’t expect a fault-tolerant quantum computer to become available for a minimum of 10 years.


Quantum Superiority
image credit lux research

“Quantum computing isn’t currently providing business value that would not be achieved with today’s existing computers, and it’s not clear when it’ll. For this reason, we advise companies to not make it a priority immediately, unless your work is already bottlenecked by today’s supercomputing,” says Roberts. For companies that have got to pursue quantum computing now, research projects that estimate when quantum advantage is often achieved are going to be key. Lux Research advises forming partnerships for these projects supported the extent of internal expertise, as this greatly affects which players are going to be most helpful for your unique projects.

Lux reports: the bulk of external funding comes from a couple of very large investments. the highest five highest-funded startups within the space have raised about $630 million to form up roughly 60 percent of external funding. Notably, they’re all hardware companies, which tend to be capital-intensive.

In terms of internal funding, billions are likely spent on development. In 2018, IBM claimed to possess spent $38 billion on research and development for emerging digital technologies like quantum computing and AI since 2013. Other competing companies like Microsoft, Google, and Fujitsu are likely spending similar amounts to assemble their own platforms.

Lux draws three main conclusions as a part of its outlook for quantum:

Quantum Superiority
image credit lux research

As useful quantum advantages are developed, they’re going to be attached to outside software platforms As quantum advantages emerge for business use cases, they’re going to be added to existing enterprise software platforms instead of sitting solely within quantum computing organizations. await partnerships between quantum players and other software players like chemical informatics.
The developer landscape will largely grow out of academia thanks to the novelty of the technology and expertise required to develop it, most innovators will emerge from academia instead of existing industry talent. they’re going to either spin of research labs or feed into existing players.
Expect continued funding within the space Though quantum computing is primarily a search project immediately, it’ll have continued support. this is often thanks to its potential to unravel novel high-value problems, which cloud giants especially (Amazon, Microsoft, etc.) want to have within their platforms.


source: insidehpc


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